Back when I wrote the original post, I had a series of 5 or 6 milestones in mind, but decided to keep it simple and only post the first two. The next one after Firefox passing IE6 was for Firefox 2+ to pass IE6. I should have been checking in more frequently, since it already has.

So what’s next? Well, I expect to see the following in the next year or two:

• Firefox 3 replacing Firefox 2. It’s already got a strong pre-release following. (Fx2 will stick around while there are still Win98 and WinMe users, but they’re already at less than 1% here and falling.)
• Firefox 1 fading into the sunset in favor of newer, more capable releases.
• Netscape disappearing into history. (It’s already below 1% here.)
• IE6 dropping below 25%, 20%, 10% (watching it go to single digits will be satisfying), and finally 1%.
• Safari approaching 10%. It’s holding steady here, but keeps climbing globally.

Things I’d like to see, but am less confident about in the near-term:

• IE6 disappearing from the radar. There are hold-outs, both at the user and the sysadmin level, plus a sizeable minority on Windows 2000. Plus I think Microsoft is committed to supporting IE6 through the lifetime of Windows XP, which means they’ll keep shipping security fixes until 2014. On the other hand, IE 5.0 is technically still supported as part of Windows 2000, but I see very few IE5 visitors these days.
• IE8 replacing IE7, for most of the same reasons it’s taking so long for IE7 to replace IE6.
• Opera breaking out of its steady marketshare and hitting a solid 5%. That would make them much harder to ignore. (10% would be better, since Safari’s still struggling for recognition at 6%.) Of course, to get there they’ll have to pull off a major publicity coup.
• IE dropping below 50%. Could be done, but it’ll be tough. If there’s no majority browser, it’ll be very difficult to justify building a site for one browser only.

Of course, these will probably all happen faster locally than globally, since the audience seems to skew slightly toward the alternatives, but then local stats are the ones that actually matter for a specific site.

The ISC reminds us that IE7 will be pushed out to WSUS next week, which should help get rid of IE6. Yeah, I’d rather more people switched to Firefox or Opera, but I’m at the point where I’d love to be able to stop worrying about IE6′s shortcomings when trying to build sites. IE7′s shortcomings are much easier to work around. (Sorry to keep harping on this!)

The inventor of Norton Antivirus talks about computer security and has some rather interesting ideas on what policies are worth pursuing…and what policies aren’t. Long passwords? Great for protecting a stand-alone machine, but on a 10,000 machine network, they only need to crack one. Patch everything? Not every vulnerability gets exploited. I’ll have to read the Slashdot thread when I have time; that should be really *ahem* interesting.

Really, the only things holding me back from jumping up to Firefox 3 on my main computers at home and at work were Firebug and some of the HTML validator extensions. Firebug is complicated enough that I didn’t want to rely on the Nightly Tester Tools to disable the compatibility checks. Then I found out that there’s a Firebug beta that does work with Firefox 3. That was enough. Last night I took the plunge.

Meanwhile, things look good on the ditch-IE6 front. After last month’s false alarm due to a local maximum, it looks like IE7 has solidly overtaken IE6 on this site! For the first 13½ days of January, Internet Explorer accounted for 62.5% of total hits. IE7 was 33.5%, and IE6 was only 28.4%. Even better, that’s barely over 1 percentage point from Firefox’s 27.2%!

Most likely, a lot of people got new computers for Christmas. New Windows boxes would mostly be Vista, and would ship with IE7. Another factor might be techies visiting their relatives and helping clean up/update their computers. They might have taken the opportunity to install IE7 or Firefox.

Not by a lot. IE7 has 32.7% and IE6 has 30.3% of the total. And I expect it’ll level out or even reverse as stats from a regular work week filter in. But still, something has finally surpassed that moldering, zombified, shambling heap of a web browser.

Next step: getting Firefox’s numbers (currently 26.8%, also above the global levels) over IE6.

Come on, let’s put a stake in this relic. It’s done.

Update (Thursday): And now Microsoft is finally starting to talk about IE8…even if it is just to say they’ve picked out a name. Whee.

As for the stats, the gap has closed somewhat in the last 2 days, with IE7 at 31.6% and IE6 at 31.2%. This is definitely looking like a home/office split. I’m going to have to write a script sometime to do a daily breakdown of browser versions and see if this actually fits.

Update (Saturday): Yes, IE6 has caught up. 32.2% to 31.1%. *sigh* It turns out I was just seeing a local maximum.

Because Microsoft takes its commitment to help protect the entire Windows ecosystem seriously, we’re updating the IE7 installation experience to make it available as broadly as possible to all Windows users. With today’s “Installation and Availability Update,” Internet Explorer 7 installation will no longer require Windows Genuine Advantage validation and will be available to all Windows XP users.

As much as I prefer alternatives like Firefox and Opera, I’ve been frustrated at the relatively slow uptake of IE7. It’s just insane that 6 years after its release, we’re still stuck designing for IE6 as the world’s most-used browser.

So who’s still running IE6?

1. People running older versions of Windows that can’t run IE7, and who haven’t switched to something else. (This is a pretty small percentage, judging by OS stats.)
2. People who don’t know how to upgrade to IE7, or why they should.
3. People who actually want to stay with IE6 (whether for technical reasons or just stubbornness)
4. People who would be happy to upgrade to IE7, except they can’t/won’t run WGA (on principle, or because it’s broken on their system, or because their OS is pirated).

I don’t know how big each group is, but Microsoft seems to think it’s worth going after #4.

It’ll be interesting to see whether there’s a jump in IE7′s marketshare relative to IE6. Maybe we’ll reach that next milestone sooner than I expected.

Firefox 1.5 reached the end of its life today. That means that security and other fixes will only be available for Firefox 2 and later. Firefox 2 will run on all the same systems as the version you have right now, plus it gives you enhancements like spell check, phishing protection, and improvements to the features you already use.

Internet Explorer 6 is outmoded. It has limited support for the languages that make up the web (particularly CSS), and often disagrees with every other browser out there, forcing developers to write complicated code so that it will work on IE6. If you’re running Windows XP, you can upgrade to Internet Explorer 7. If you’re running an older version of Windows, you can benefit by switching to an alternative browser such as Firefox
or Opera. Whether you switch or upgrade, I highly recommend moving away from Internet Explorer 6.

Update: Mozilla has extended Firefox 1.5 support through mid-May.

• Get rid of the non-working compatibility cruft for Netscape 4 (some of it was actually making things worse in NS4)
• Make navigation easier.

I decided early on that I wanted to move to that old standby, the tab bar across the top of the page. I toyed around with using fixed positioning so it would stay in place like a toolbar, but couldn’t get same-page links to position themselves correctly. I also realized that the tab bar needed something above it, or else it would blend in with the browser’s toolbars. Solution: another old standby, the site logo above the tabs

After trying some more out-there ideas, I ended up with the rest of the page looking about the same as before. Having the logo at the top meant that I didn’t need a giant logo on the main page, freeing up space to add something I’ve meant to do for a long time: Post more obvious links to each of the main Flashes.

Something interesting I noticed: I’m now considering IE6 a second-tier browser. I’m building for IE7, Firefox, Opera and Safari first. I no longer care about minor issues in IE6, just major ones. I realized this when I decided to use an alpha-transparent PNG at the top of every page. Sure, I was able to use PNG Behavior to get it to look right in IE6, but that requires scripting, and it’s not the same as native support. (Now that I have that linked on every page, though, I can use alpha-PNGs anywhere without additional effort.)

I also decided to switch from XHTML, which I’d started using in the 2000 redesign, back to HTML 4.01. The site had never benefited from using XHTML, and HTML still has wider support, so I figured if I was going to be changing code anyway, I might as well take the opportunity.

I posted the new layout last Sunday, and I swear, within 10 minutes someone had sent a comment on it.

Monday was time for fixing bugs. Not surprisingly, the biggest ones were both in IE. They were two related bugs involving floats and italics that had the opposite effect in IE6 and IE7. They were also intermittent, only affecting particular pages and only with certain window sized, which is why I hadn’t caught them before launch.

IE6 encountered the Peek-a-boo Bug. On certain pages, text next to a floated image would not appear. IE7 encountered another disappearing content bug, in which the floated image itself would stop displaying below any line with italics. (What is it with IE7 and weird problems with italics?) It turned out both could be fixed by setting width or height on the article DIV, instead of letting it take the size of the container (which includes the footer), so I just made it 97% (since 100% confused IE6 even more) and had done with it.

Finally, I’ve added some enhancements for certain browsers using experimental CSS3 features. People visiting with Firefox or other Gecko-based browsers will see rounded corners on the tabs (it looks much better than the square-cornered version, but isn’t necessary), along with people using nightly releases of Webkit (with any luck, the feature will be in the next version of Safari). Really neat was box-shadow, so far only in Webkit. I was finally able to add the drop-shadows to the article and sidebar the way I wanted to back in my last redesign in 2002! I’m looking forward to seeing other browsers implement it.

Microsoft will be releasing the long-overdue Internet Explorer 7 any day now (possibly as soon as Wednesday, if rumors prove correct). It will only be available for Windows XP SP2, Windows Server 2003, and the upcoming Windows Vista.

I know there are people out there still using Windows 2000, Windows 98, Windows Me, and other older systems that won’t run IE7. Why not take the opportunity to check out something new? Firefox 2 is also due out this month, and Opera 9 just came out this summer.

Despite what you may have heard, the vast majority of websites really do work on all major browsers. And with alternative browsers gaining popularity, the number of websites that block anyone but Internet Explorer is shrinking.

Opera and Firefox will bring you tabbed browsing, RSS Feeds, security and privacy controls, built-in searching, pop-up blocking—all the advantages IE7 boasts over IE6. Plus you get more customization, built-in spell checking, download management, session saving, and support for up-and-coming web technologies like SVG graphics and WebForms 2. Opera adds blazing fast display, voice commands and mouse gestures (leave that keyboard behind!), and per-site preferences.

Check out Opera. Check out Firefox. Or check out a dozen other alternative web browsers. Try them out, and see what works best for you.

The fact of the matter is, I’m not worried. I tested my personal sites and the sites I’d built for work months ago, using the IE7 betas, and more recently with RC1. I made a couple of minor changes to some stylesheets, but that was about it.

Why? I’ve been writing standards-based code for years. I validate it from time to time, and I test to make sure it works in the latest versions of Firefox, Opera and Safari as well as IE. So the code was already portable.

Plus, anything new I’ve built since January has been designed with IE7 in mind from the beginning.

Most of the changes were to workarounds for IE6. Either stopping them from running on IE7 (if the bug was fixed), or keeping them running on IE7 (if it was done using a CSS hack).